Raptors Lineup Change Comes With Question
The changes that came to the Raptors lineup on Monday night were changes that needed to happen. Terrence Ross has struggled. For some, the struggles started during the first round of last year’s playoffs versus the Brooklyn Nets, where Ross shot 29.8% from the field. When DeMar DeRozan went down earlier this season many thought the 23-year old Ross would step-up and perform in the absence of the all-star. Ross showed signs of succeeding, but mostly failed.
With DeRozan healthy, Ross has still disappointed. He’s lost a significant amount of confidence since the playoffs. The 3-year veteran has been averaging under 30-minutes a game, while shooting 41.1% and 37.3% from three-point land. His player efficiency rating is 11.29, almost one rating below last season, and his true shooting percentage is about 3% lower. The Raptors have used Ross equally in his first three seasons. His usage rate through his first three years in the NBA have gone 17.8, 17.2, and 17.3.
These numbers are the exact reason Ross found himself spending the second half of the game versus the New Orleans Pelicans on the bench. It then turned into him coming off the bench during Monday’s game in Milwaukee. Many thought James Johnson would replace Ross, or maybe Patrick Patterson, but Dwane Casey decided to go with Greivis Vasquez.
The biggest shocker on Monday was the lineup change led to a Johnson benching. The veteran forward has been a pleasant surprise to the Raptors success this season, but Ross coming off the bench saw Johnson receive no minutes. For many that came as a surprise, which is fair. However, this is more of a short-term situation than long-term. Johnson won’t be on the bench forever.
Here’s how I explain Johnson’s zero minutes against the Bucks:
A coach has 240-minutes to hand out every game. For Casey he has two all-star players, both of which deserve around 35-minutes per game. With DeRozan coming back from injury he’s not playing 35-minutes, but when he’s off the court you need Lou Williams’ scoring touch to be on the court. DeRozan’s minute restriction limited him to 26-minutes meaning Williams has to play the 22-minutes while DeRozan rests. Remember basketball isn’t hockey, so players can not be hopping over the boards to make substitutions. They must wait for the whistle, so that takes Williams to 28-minutes. Putting DeRozan and Williams at a combined 54-minutes.
Kyle Lowry still gets his 35-minutes of action. On this night it was 36, but one of Lowry and Vasquez must be on the court at all times. That means Vasquez has to play a guaranteed 12-minutes. The back-up point guard usually averages 21.8-minutes, but as a starter that jumps for Vasquez. It jumped to 31 on Monday, which is four more than what Ross averages as a starter. Fair, because Vasquez automatically has to play 12. So the first 121 minutes are already covered with still the big men remaining.
Amir Johnson and Jonas Valanciunas didn’t play their normal 26.5-minutes. Amir with his athleticism fit in against the Bucks young athletic bigs leading to 31-minutes. Jonas Valanciunas is not so athletic defensively leading to a limited 19-minutes, while Patterson’s spacing allows Casey to play him his average 26-minutes. With that you’re now left with 43-minutes.
Benching Ross doesn’t meaning cutting his minute’s to zero. You are trying to help him gain his confidence back. Keep in mind Ross has a year and a half left on his contract, so he could be a trade asset. The 2012 first-round pick was also playing one of his best games all season against the Bucks. Scoring 16-points on 7-12 shooting forced Casey to play Ross late in the game, because it was working. Ross’ 23 minutes leaves Casey with 20-minutes.
(There’s an extra minute due to the rounding of minutes)
Tyler Hansbrough received the extra 19-minutes, because Casey at the end of the game said, “Nothing James Johnson did wrong. Those three guys played well.” Those three guys being Hansbrough, Patterson and Ross. Which is fair, Hansbrough’s numbers don’t show it but he’s that tough-ass player the Raptors need when struggling to get wins.
Nothing against James Johnson, he’s an athletic defender. The simple fact is the Raptors need to play guys who can shoot the three and space the floor for Lowry and DeRozan. Johnson can space the floor, but can’t shoot. Vasquez, Williams, Patterson and Ross can all do so, leaving Johnson the odd man out. It might not be the case next game, or for the long-term, but as long as Ross can contribute off the bench Johnson will remain the odd man out.