DeRozan’s Numbers Slip As He Goes Down With Injury
Friday night the Toronto Raptors fell to the Dallas Mavericks 106-102 in a night the game was the last of their worries, as they lost a starter to injury. The team got off to a 10-0 run to begin the game, after a timeout by Dallas head coach Rick Carlisle the Mavs came flying out of the huddle – never looking back. The Raptors tried to claw back into the game, but kept slipping every chance they got.
Slipping is the key word Raptor faithful will remember from Friday’s game. It was 8:23 left in the third when DeMar DeRozan looked to turn the corner near the baseline before he slipped, landing awkwardly. It looked to be a wrist injury – however, after a few replays it was clear DeRozan had injured his groin. Later learning the Raptors all-star left the game with a groin strain. He will travel with the team to Los Angeles as they prepare for a three game road trip – it’s unclear if he will play.
DeRozan’s injury was what some may call from bad to worse. The Raptors looked completely out of the game till late in the fourth when they began to make a run. DeRozan’s departure may have helped with that. The Raptors leading scoring was 0 of 8 from the field on the night and no trips to the free throw line prior to his injury. Some may call it an off night for the franchise player, but it can also be looked at as an early season slump.
Most of DeRozan’s numbers are down from last season. With the boosted depth on the Raptors DeRozan’s minutes have been cut from just over 38 minutes per game to close to 33.5 minutes. The stars field goal percentage has dropped from .429 in 2013-14 to .394 this season. His three point percentage has gone down from .305 to .250. His free throws made, attempted, percentage and rebounding are all very similar, while assists have gone down from 4 per game to 2.6. Worst of all DeRozan is averaging 19.4 point per game compared to his 22.7 points last season.
DeRozan’s point per game being down is understandable, again with the added depth on the roster. However, none of that explains why his percentages have dropped. His field goal percentage and three point percentage are also below his career average.
Taking this into a more analytic approach, those stats aren’t on DeRozan’s side either. His USG (Usage rate – number of possessions a player uses per 40 minutes) last season was 26.6, and this season is very similar through 16 games at 26.5. Therefore, DeRozan is still getting the same amount of possessions even with the added depth. Though, his player efficiency rating has gone down from 18.42 to 16.82. His biggest analytic hit comes from his true shooting percentage which has dropped a total of 3.8% from last season.
DeRozan’s value to the Raptors has also decreased significantly this season. Last season DeRozan averaged .096 wins per 48 minutes (WP48), which totaled to a 6.1 wins produced. This season DeRozan is producing .060 WP48, ranking him 34 out of 54 shooting guards who have played more than 160 minutes. Shooting guards are averaging .099 WP48 so far in the 14-15 season. DeRozan’s wins produced through the early part of the season is 0.7, though his team is 13-3. Putting that into perspective Kyle Lowry has produced 2.9 wins, and Lou Williams, acquired via trade in the summer is at 1.7 wins produced – ranking him ninth among all shooting guards who have played 160 plus minutes.
When things are going good people don’t see the negatives, but if the Raptors were 3-13, DeRozan’s poor start to the season would be clear to all. Don’t get it wrong, DeRozan is still a vital part to the Raptors roster, it just hasn’t shown this season. It seems his groin injury came at a point of rock bottom. He was left off the score sheet against the Mavericks on Friday night before existing. It was a game in which his team needed him the most as Lowry picked up three fouls in the first quarter, yet DeRozan struggled to find his game.
It’s unclear how much time DeRozan will miss with the groin strain, if any. When he does comeback the Raptors hope last year’s all-star DeRozan is who returns. If he doesn’t, the Raptors 13-3 start could vanish real quick as the schedule begins to grow tougher with more elite teams coming up and more action on the road. Though, with the great play of the Raptors bench through the early part of the season the Raptors could continue to produce wins. At the end of the day the Raptors are an even better team if DeRozan finds his shooting.
DeRozan has slipped to rock bottom, now the hope is he only raises back to his all-star form.