Who's the best in the NBA Eastern Conference?

Being on a student-budget makes it almost impossible to consider getting myself an ESPN Insider account. I don’t even know anyone who does have a membership with ESPN – maybe that’s due to my lack of friends or the fact that it never comes up in conversation.

Whatever it might be, there certainly are times I come across articles on ESPN and wish I was a member. Then there are other times when I read the article title and the couple of paragraphs that non-ESPN Insiders are permitted to, and these couple paragraphs always lead me to refute the authors claim.

On December 9, ESPN posted an article (for their Insiders) titled Celtics have been better than Bulls, and every other team in the East. First off, that’s a long title. Secondly, it’s tough to refute the claim if you don’t know the data to back it up. But whatever the data may be to claim the Celtics are better than everyone else, there is enough data to claim other teams in the East have been better than the Celtics, and every other team in that conference.

Prior to Wednesday nights action in the NBA, the Boston Celtics had a point differential of +15 in games they won. Which is the best differential in the league despite the Celtics being the ninth seed in a tightly contested eastern conference.

Through 22-games the Celtics have an offensive rating of 101.8, 15th best in the league. Their defensive rating is much better at third best in the league, averaging 97.0. Giving them a net rating of 4.8 with a 13-9 record.

After their 105-100 win over the Chicago Bulls, the Celtics moved into the seventh seed in the East, but have they really been better than every other team in the conference as Kevin Pelton of ESPN claims?

The last sentence available for non-Insiders in Pelton’s article was, “The Celtics also have a much better outlook going forward”. With an average age of 25 – 1.9 years younger than the league average – the Celtics are on the path for a bright long-term future. In fact, one day the Celtics will be battling for the top of the conference, just not quite yet.

This season the East is full of overachievers, which includes the Celtics. There is currently only a three game difference in the standings between the first place Cleveland Cavaliers and the 10th seeded Detroit Pistons. In retrospect, at the end of last season there was a 23 game difference between the first place Atlanta Hawks and 10th seeded Miami Heat.

For the 2015-16 season many predicted the Cavaliers to run away with the East, however that has not been the case. Injuries to guards Kyrie Irving and Iman Shumpert might be effecting the Cavaliers, but they’re still leading the East with a 14-7 record and have a 3.6 net rating – eighth best rating in the league. In terms of their schedule, the Cavaliers have had the fifth easiest opening two months compared to the rest of the league as their strength of schedule (according to ESPN) has been a low .476.

So far the Cavaliers have played only four of their 19 back-to-backs this season. They’ve played one more home game compared to road games, and their longest road trip thus far has been three games. So, it’s almost certain that compared to other teams in the East the Cavaliers have had one of the easiest schedules.

One team that has dealt with one of the toughest schedules to begin the season has been the Toronto Raptors. Currently on their longest home stretch of six games, the Raptors first 13 of 19 games were played on the road. As their schedule begins to weaken, the Raptors .506 strength of schedule (to this date) ranks 12th in the league.

However, they have already played 13 games versus the Western Conference, which is the most in the East (tied with the Pistons). Furthermore, the Raptors have played their two games versus the 23-0 Golden State Warriors, which no other team in the East has done. Though the Raptors lost both games to the Warriors, they gave the reigning NBA Champs two of their toughest games of the season – losing the first game by five and the second game by three.

Don’t get carried away now thinking the Raptors are ranked up there with the Warriors. That’s not what I’m saying at all. In fact, the Raptors also have losses to the New York Knicks, Sacramento Kings and Denver Nuggets, and almost lost to the Los Angeles Lakers the first time the two teams met this season. But the Raptors do have wins against the Dallas Mavericks, Oklahoma City Thunder, Los Angeles Clippers, Cavaliers, Atlanta Hawks and San Antonio Spurs.

After their 97-94 win over the Spurs on Wednesday – which they led for most of the game – the Raptors are now 8-4 versus winning teams, which is the best in the East. However, they are 5-6 versus sub-.500 teams, which is third worst in the East.

They have seen starting center Jonas Valanciunas miss nine games due to an injury, and he’ll continue to be sidelined with a broken hand. Their biggest summer free agent signing DeMarre Carroll has also missed five games.

For the early parts of the season, the Raptors were one of the rare NBA teams to have both their offensive rating and defensive rating rank in the top 10 of the league. Since then their defensive rating has fallen off to 13th in the league at 100.7 – still 4.1 points better than last season. They do have the sixth best offensive rating of 104.2, which ranks second best in the east and gives them a net rating of 3.5 (sixth best in the east).

Kyle Lowry is having a career season for the Raptors, and is arguably a top-5 MVP candidate. The point guard is averaging a career high 22.2 points, 6.3 assists, 4.9 rebounds and another career best with 2.5 steals. He’s also shooting a career best .432 from the field while taking a career-high 15.6 shots per game, and he’s also taking a career-high 7.2 three’s per game, while having a career best .418 three point percentage.

Lowry has the eighth best player efficiency rating in the league at 25.84, and among players averaging 30 minutes per game, Lowry has the seventh best true shooting percentage at 60.0%.

But the best news for the Raptors has been the rejuvenated DeMar DeRozan. After the shooting guard had a career-low in shooting percentages during the 14-15 season, DeRozan is shooting 0.22% better from the field than last season, while averaging 21.4 points per game. His PER has increased by 2.1, and his true shooting percentage is 0.22% better than last season.

With a 14-9 record after one of the toughest schedules to begin the season, injuries to two of five starters, an improved backcourt and improved defence, the Raptors could easily be in the discussion for the best team in the East to this point in the season.

But with the East standings being so tight at the moment it is tough to say a team is truly better than the rest. The Charlotte Hornets and Indiana Pacers are the only East teams with both offensive and defensive ratings ranking in the top 10 – the Warriors, Spurs and Thunder are the only other teams achieving such a thing. Hornets and Pacers also rank in the top 10 for strength of schedule – while the Hornets also have the best net rating in the East at 5.3.

Miami Heat are another team that can’t be counted out as they have the fifth best net rating in the NBA at 4.9. Atlanta Hawks with a 14-9 record and the Bulls with an 11-8 record are also in the discussion for the best in the East.

With that being said, any team from one to eight in the East standings at the moment can be considered as the best in the conference. Pelton made a case for the Celtics, I’m making a case for the Raptors and the Hornets (with a tough schedule and the best net rating in the East) are making a case for themselves.

Who the best in the conference is might not become clear till the February All-Star break, but for now, the East is once again a competitive conference to watch.